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Seasonal Climate Outlook, June to August 2003

A Mild Winter Is Expected La Niña Developing For Winter

Temperature: Above average temperatures are expected in all districts except the east of the South Island, where above average or average temperatures are expected. Some cold spells typical of winter are also likely, with frosty conditions at times in inland places. Local sea surface temperatures are likely to remain above average during the June – August period.

Rainfall: Normal or below normal rainfall is expected in the east of the North Island and in parts of Southland and inland Otago, with near normal rainfall likely elsewhere. Seasonal soil moisture levels and river flows are predicted to be normal in most regions, except for normal or below normal river flows in eastern regions of both islands.

Tropical Pacific: The tropical Pacific is moving towards moderate La Niña conditions, which are likely to last through the winter. Conditions are changing rapidly at present, and there is not yet a clear consensus view of spring and summer developments.

Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty: Near normal rainfall, soil moisture levels and stream flows are expected. Above average air temperatures are likely.

Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Wellington: Rainfall, soil moisture and stream flows are all expected to be near normal. Above average temperatures are likely.

Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa: Normal or below normal seasonal rainfall, soil moisture and river flows are predicted for the east of the North Island. Temperatures are likely to be above average.

Nelson, Marlborough, Buller: Seasonal rainfall, soil moisture and stream flows are projected to be near normal, with higher than average temperatures.

West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland: Normal rainfall is likely in Westland and the Alpine regions, but normal or below normal falls are expected in Southland and inland Otago. Temperatures are expected to be above average. Normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are predicted.

Coastal Canterbury, East Otago: Rainfall and soil moisture levels are expected to be near normal, with normal or below normal river flows. Above average or average temperatures are likely.




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